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美国意图一局定胜负？特朗普这回会输得更彻底！巴沙土为伊朗留位置,香邀爱动漫,原创 美国意图一局定胜负？特朗普这回会输得更彻底！巴沙土为伊朗留位置_我的网站

一 |     特朗普撂下狠话：史上最严制裁，要么伊朗跪，要么全世界选边站。可他万万没料到，这一仗打到最后，美国自己先成了孤家寡人。

二 |         ① 美国押上全部筹码    8月24日，美财长贝森特要开新闻发布会，亲口宣布对伊朗"历史上最严厉"的制裁。    The 2026 Golden Globe Awards nominations arrived, where the finest in the entertainment industry receive awards. HBO’s The White Lotus is leading with six nominations. The luxe Thailand-set season secured multiple acting nominations and a best drama series nomination, continuing its run as one of TV’s most talked-about anthologies.Netflix’s Adolescence followed with five, while Only Murders in the Building and Severance each landed four nominations. This year’s nominations reflect the Globes’ ongoing evolution. Alongside the traditional categories, the HFPA has expanded its scope to include stand-up comedy specials and podcasts. This acknowledges the shift in audience habits.Meanwhile, the industry itself continues to navigate streaming contractions, cost-cutting studio strategies, and an unpredictable box office, even as Hollywood prepares once again for its most free-spirited awards night. Netflix, fresh off its landmark acquisition of Warner Bros. and HBO, led all distributors with 35 nominations, while its soon-to-be-absorbed counterparts collectively scored 31.On the film side, One Battle After Another surged ahead of the pack with nine nominations, emerging as the year’s most recognised motion picture. The sharp sociopolitical satire earned nods for best motion picture – musical or comedy. Paul Thomas Anderson’s direction and screenplay, Jonny Greenwood’s score, and a powerhouse slate of performances from Leonardo DiCaprio, Chase Infiniti, Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor.Sentimental Value and Sinners also showed up strong with eight and seven nominations, respectively, competing across drama, acting, and craft categories.The nominations were announced by Marlon Wayans and Skye P. Marshall. The night will see Nikki Glaser as the host once again.                                                                 View this post on Instagram          A post shared by Nikki Glaser (@nikkiglaser)               FULL NOMINATIONS LIST:BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMAThe Diplomat (Netflix)The Pitt (HBO Max)Pluribus (Apple TV)Severance (Apple TV)Slow Horses (Apple TV)The White Lotus (HBO Max)BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDYAbbott Elementary (ABC)The Bear (FX on Hulu)Hacks (HBO Max)Nobody Wants This (Netflix)Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)The Studio (Apple TV)BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISIONAdolescence (Netflix)All Her Fault (Peacock)The Beast in Me (Netflix)Black Mirror (Netflix)Dying for Sex (FX on Hulu)The Girlfriend (Prime Video)BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR – DRAMAKathy Bates (Matlock)Britt Lower (Severance)Helen Mirren (Mobland)Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)Keri Russell (The Diplomat)Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus)BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR – DRAMASterling K. Brown (Paradise)Diego Luna (Andor)Gary Oldman (Slow Horses)Mark Ruffalo (Task)Adam Scott (Severance)Noah Wyle (The Pitt)BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDYKristen Bell (Nobody Wants This)Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face)Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)Jean Smart (Hacks)BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDYAdam Brody (Nobody Wants This)Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)Glen Powell (Chad Powers)Seth Rogen (The Studio)Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR – LIMITED SERIES/ANTHOLOGY/TV MOVIEClaire Danes (The Beast in Me)Rashida Jones (Black Mirror)Amanda Seyfried (Long Bright River)Sarah Snook (All Her Fault)Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex)Robin Wright (The Girlfriend)BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR – LIMITED SERIES/ANTHOLOGY/TV MOVIEJacob Elordi (The Narrow Road to the Deep North)Paul Giamatti (Black Mirror)Stephen Graham (Adolescence)Charlie Hunnam (Monster: The Ed Gein Story)Jude Law (Black Rabbit)Matthew Rhys (The Beast in Me)BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE ACTOR – TELEVISIONCarrie Coon (The White Lotus)Erin Doherty (Adolescence)Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)Catherine O’Hara (The Studio)Parker Posey (The White Lotus)Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus)BEST SUPPORTING MALE ACTOR – TELEVISIONOwen Cooper (Adolescence)Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)Walton Goggins (The White Lotus)Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus)Tramell Tillman (Severance)Ashley Walters (Adolescence)BEST PERFORMANCE IN STAND-UP COMEDY ON TELEVISIONBill MaherBrett GoldsteinKevin HartKumail NanjianiRicky GervaisSarah SilvermanBEST PODCASTArmchair Expert with Dax Shepard (Wondery)Call Her Daddy (SiriusXM)Good Hang with Amy Poehler (Spotify)The Mel Robbins Podcast (SiriusXM)SmartLess (SiriusXM)Up First (NPR)MOTION PICTURE NOMINATIONSBEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMAFrankenstein (Netflix)Hamnet (Focus Features)It Was Just an Accident (Neon)The Secret Agent (Neon)Sentimental Value (Neon)Sinners (Warner Bros. Pictures)BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDYBlue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)Bugonia (Focus Features)Marty Supreme (A24)No Other Choice (Neon)Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)One Battle After Another (Warner Bros. Pictures)BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATEDArco (Neon)Demon Slayer: Infinity CastleElioKpop Demon HuntersLittle Amélie or the Character of RainZootopia 2CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENTAvatar: Fire and AshF1Kpop Demon HuntersMission: Impossible – The Final ReckoningSinnersWeaponsWicked: For GoodZootopia 2BEST MOTION PICTURE – NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGEIt Was Just an Accident – FranceNo Other Choice – South KoreaThe Secret Agent – BrazilSentimental Value – NorwaySirāt – SpainThe Voice of Hind Rajab – TunisiaBEST ACTRESS – DRAMAJessie Buckley (Hamnet)Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)Tessa Thompson (Hedda)Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)BEST ACTOR – DRAMAJoel Edgerton (Train Dreams)Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen)BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDYRose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)Kate Hudson (Song SUng Blue)Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)Emma Stone (Bugonia)BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDYTimothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)George Clooney (Jay Kelly)Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice)Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE ACTOR – FILMEmily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)Amy Madigan (Weapons)Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)BEST SUPPORTING MALE ACTOR – FILMBenicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)Paul Mescal (Hamnet)Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)BEST DIRECTORPaul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)Ryan Coogler (Sinners)Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident)Joachim Trier(Sentimental Value)Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)BEST SCREENPLAYPaul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie  (Marty Supreme)Ryan Coogler (Sinners)Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident)Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell (Hamnet)BEST ORIGINAL SCOREAlexandre Desplat (Frankenstein)Ludwig Göransson (Sinners)Jonny Greenwood (One Battle After Another)Kangding Ray (Sirāt)Max Richter (Hamnet)Hans Zimmer (F1)BEST ORIGINAL SONGDream as One (Avatar: Fire and Ash)Music and Lyrics by: Miley Cyrus, Andrew Wyatt, Mark Ronson, Simon FranglenGolden (KPOP Demon Hunters) Music by: Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo, Park Hong JunLyrics by: Kim Eun-jae (EJAE), Mark SonnenblickI Lied to You (Sinners)Music and Lyrics by: Raphael Saadiq, Ludwig GöranssonNo Place Like Home (Wicked: For Good)Music and Lyrics by: Stephen SchwartzThe Girl in the Bubble (Wicked: For Good)Music and Lyrics by: Stephen SchwartzTrain Dreams (Train Dreams)Music by: Nick Cave, Bryce DessnerLyrics by: Nick CaveAlso Read: Tom Cruise To Finally Get An Oscar!。说白了，这就是一套组合拳，海上封锁配合经济绞杀，贝森特自己都明说："这将很可能是历史上规模最大、协调程度最高的经济孤立行动"，"要么站在我们这一边，要么站在我们的对立面"。    特朗普在社交媒体上喊得更直白：任何给伊朗提供帮助的国家，都将面临"严重的经济后果"。这话翻译过来就是：全世界听好了，跟我混还是跟伊朗混，二选一。    可这恰恰说明了一个问题，美国打不动了。    ② 伊朗的反应耐人寻味    伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发言人穆赫比一句话戳破了窗户纸："美国宣布发动最严厉经济战，这恰恰变相承认，敌方已经在军事领域遭遇屈辱性失败"。        这话虽然带刺，但逻辑站得住脚。美军自己公布的数据：从7月开始执行封锁以来，美军海军重新调整了70艘商船的航线，使3艘商船失去行动能力，并登上了另外2艘船只。搞了快两个月，就这？    伊朗方面的态度更绝。穆赫比直接说：美国对伊朗制裁已经47年了，伊朗"没有担忧"，会"在美国眼皮底下"继续和其他国家做生意、绕开限制。    说白了，伊朗是被制裁喂大的。你美国再狠，能狠过这47年？    ③ 霍尔木兹成最大赌局    很多人以为，美国海军强大，封锁霍尔木兹海峡就是分分钟的事。其实完全不是。

三 |     伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊的警告够狠："如果经济战争继续，就连一滴石油也不会被出口，无论是通过霍尔木兹海峡，还是波斯湾其他任何地方"。他还撂下一句更重的：任何参与对伊朗经济限制的国家，"都将被我们视作敌人"。        这边伊朗说海峡在自己"完全掌控"中 ，那边特朗普反呛：霍尔木兹是美国"新领土"。两边各说各话，但有一个事实藏不住，波斯湾的石油，真要掐断，全球能源市场都得抖三抖。

四 |     打个比方，这就像两个人各拿一把刀抵着对方喉咙，谁先松手谁完蛋。可伊朗光脚的不怕穿鞋的，美国背后可是绑着全球油价和国内通胀。

五 |     ④ 中东国家在"换桌子"    真正的好戏，在制裁令落地前24小时上演。

六 |     8月7日，沙特、土耳其、巴基斯坦三国在麦加签了《麦加共同防务协议》，对任一成员国武装攻击即视为对全体攻击。土耳其总统埃尔多安说得很明白：这个协议不针对任何国家，向本地区其他国家开放。        紧接着，伊朗议会通讯社社长拉希米放话：德黑兰已收到正式邀请，加入《麦加共同防务协议》，相关事宜正在审议。    但是，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃24日给出了另一个版本：伊朗"尚未收到"加入协议的正式邀请，不过在与成员国的讨论中，伊朗已提出确保地区安全的建议。    ?? 注意这个细节：一边是议会方面说"收到了"，一边是外交部说"还没正式收到"。这说明什么？ 说明中东国家正在用一种"准邀请"的姿态，给伊朗留椅子，也给美国递话，"我们不再需要你来保卫"。    ⑤ 沙巴土的算盘        很多人看不懂：沙特和伊朗，逊尼派和什叶派，不是死对头吗？ 怎么突然要坐一桌？    其实反过来想就通了。美国这几个月在伊朗身上砸了多少军事资源？ 结果呢，海峡没拿下，政权没推翻，自己还陷在战争泥潭里。沙特一看：原来美国这个保镖，关键时刻压不住场子。    那怎么办？ 自己组队。    沙特、土耳其、巴基斯坦，一个是海湾老大，一个是地区军事强国，一个是伊斯兰世界唯一核国家。

七 | 三国结盟本身就是一记打在美国脸上的耳光，中东正在系统性"去美国化"。        如果伊朗真以某种形式被纳入这个框架，那画面太美：逊尼派和什叶派第一次在同一把安全保护伞下握手。以色列怎么办？ 美军基地还有什么存在必要？    ⑥ 美国经济战的反噬    贝森特吹得震天响的"经济战"，真打起来，美国自己先疼。    第一层疼：油价。霍尔木兹海峡承担全球约五分之一的石油运输，真要"一滴油都不让出"，美国国内的汽油价格会瞬间炸锅，特朗普的支持率本来就被这场拖了快半年的战争拖累，再来这么一下，11月中期选举还选不选了？        第二层疼：盟友不跟。欧洲国家从头到尾保持沉默，阿联酋虽然宣布暂停与伊朗贸易 ，但土耳其、巴基斯坦这些"美国盟友"反而主动给伊朗递椅子。贝森特喊"要么站我们这边要么站对面"，可应者寥寥。    第三层疼：制裁的法律天花板。未经联合国安理会授权，美国搞不了全面贸易禁禁，制裁只能约束美国企业。你想让伊拉克、土耳其、阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦一起掐断与伊朗的贸易？ "除非你说服所有这些邻居"，而它们根本不跟美国玩。    ⑦ 伊朗的"制裁抗体"    这才是真正有意思的地方。        伊朗被制裁47年，练出了一整套"制裁免疫系统"：地区贸易网络、石油换商品、非美元结算、本土工业闭环。革命卫队发言人那句"在美国眼皮底下继续做生意"，听着狂，但确实是事实。    更要命的是，伊朗手里还有一张王牌，金砖国家机制。只要保持与中俄和金砖国家的友好合作，伊朗就不怕被经济孤立。德黑兰高层紧急飞往中国求助的消息不是空穴来风，金砖就是伊朗最大的后盾。    美国想用"断钱"拖死伊朗，可伊朗是被制裁了50年的国家，6000多项制裁都没跪，再加一条又何惧之有？    ⑧ 真正的输家浮出水面        把镜头拉远看，这场"经济战"最讽刺的地方在于：特朗普想用"一局定胜负"的方式体面退场，结果反而加速了美国在 Midd东影响力的崩盘。

八 |     哈梅内伊遇害了，上来的是更年轻的穆杰塔巴，伊朗政权纹丝不动。美军尝试了除地面战以外的所有军事手段，全部失败。

九 | 现在换成经济战，可中东国家在沙特带头下开始寻找新的安全合作伙伴。    美国越是用制裁威逼利诱，中东国家越是看清一个事实：跟着美国混没有安全感，摆脱美国才有。    特朗普以为自己是棋手，可他有没有想过：当沙特、土耳其、巴基斯坦把椅子摆好留给伊朗，当霍尔木兹的实控权牢牢攥在德黑兰手里，当"史上最严制裁"撞上伊朗47年练就的"制裁抗体"，这一局"定胜负"的牌桌，规则早就不在华盛顿手里了，那他拿什么赢？返回，查看更多。

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